Seasonal Climate Outlook: August – October 2012 01-Aug-2012

August 1, 2012 10:46 pm

Conditions in the tropical Pacific are currently on the brink of El Niño, and it is likely El Niño will develop during early spring. Early spring air temperatures are likely to be near average or above average for all regions of the country. 

August-October rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all likely to be near normal or above normal in the north of the North Island, below normal for the eastern South Island, and near normal in all other regions.

Regional predictions for the next three months:


• Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty – temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are likely to be near normal or above normal;

• Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu, Wellington – temperatures equally likely to be in near average or above average. Near normal early spring rainfall, soil moisture levels, and river flows are likely;

• Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa – temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all likely to be near normal;

• Nelson, Marlborough, Buller – temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Near normal seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are likely;

• West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland – temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Early spring rainfall, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all likely to be near normal; and

• Coastal Canterbury, east Otago – temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Below normal seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are likely.



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